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I worked on the first differential equations model for
the spread of HIV in Thailand. Since then I have modeled the social
dynamics of the sex industry which is crucial to the spread of HIV/AIDS in
Thailand in the 90¡¦s, as well as the statistical est imation
of the HIV-infected population size of hard-to-count high-risk
populations. Together with Drs. Cathy Woan-Shu Chen and Shin-Ming Lee, we
developed the ¡§Generalized Removal Model for Open Populations¡¨, a novel
statistical method making use of techniques in Capture-recapture
methodology with Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the
HIV-infected population size from two or more HIV serotesting samples.
Together with Taiwan CDC (TCDC) and the biostatisticians and
epidemiologists, we also tackled the important problem of the efficacy of
HAART treatment of HIV-infected patients in Taiwan. More recently, I have
worked on modeling of the SARS outbreak in Taiwan this past spring. We
used both mathematical and statistical models to explore the factors for
the epidemic which claimed more than one hundred lives. Presently, I am
working on models of avian flu and Influenza which will enable us to
understand the critical factors that might determine the potential
severity of a flu pandemic.
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